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pazare/README.md

Pablo Zavala (www.zavalab.com)

Hi! I am passionate about the uses of technology for human capital development. My areas of professional and academic interests are agentic technologies, quantum computing, public policy, and AI governance. I have been working on agentic calibration for long-horizon investments. These are some of my public repositories:

Agent governance: conduct under pressure

hierarchical-agent-governance-evals

Agents now hold operational authority: they merge code, allocate budgets, direct other agents. This program tests whether an agent overreaches that authority or declines authority it legitimately holds. Six action-level probe families put agents in those situations; blind AI audit panels grade the outcomes.

The methodological finding mattered as much as the behavioral one. Automated graders false-flagged compliant behavior — I caught and corrected about a dozen instances by hand before reporting any result. The effect that survived scrutiny: Fisher one-sided p = 0.0098 — a behavioral divergence rather than a constitutional failure.

Economic measurement: the reach of AI's gains

The same standard applied to AI in economic decisions: pre-register, report nulls as nulls, state the tradeoffs.

  • safe-market-universes — a pre-registered null result: the model's own confidence rationed scarce human review no better than chance, regret 0.176 vs 0.191 for random allocation. A hand-coded evidence rule reached 0.091.
  • Macroeconomic-Simulation-Netlogo — an agent-based model of labor-market adjustment to AI automation. Changing the policy regime alone moves peak unemployment from 14.3% to 3.6%, with workers and random seed held fixed.
  • RAG_Eval — an evaluation harness where reranking lifts context precision from 69.0% to 86.6%, while exact match drops. A system can look worse on string overlap and be better grounded. You have to measure both.
  • Strike-Team — Pittsburgh's AI investment ecosystem mapped at the Block Center, CMU: 133 active AI firms, USD 6.3B cumulative funding (July 2025 snapshot), with the full report committed.

Background

MS, Public Policy & Management (Data Analytics), Carnegie Mellon University, May 2026 — Highest Distinction. Accelerated MA with Honors, University of Chicago. BA, summa cum laude, Soka University — 4.0 GPA in every economics course.

Founder, NUDG — an AI Resource OS venture in formation, built for proof receipts and human-gated execution: nudgai.com

Open to full-time roles in AI evaluation and research, data science, and AI policy.

Portfolio: zavalab.com · linkedin.com/in/pablo-zavala

Pinned Loading

  1. hierarchical-agent-governance-evals hierarchical-agent-governance-evals Public

    Authority Calibration in Long-Horizon AI Agents: a two-tailed, endogeneity-graded framework for evaluating agents that hold operational authority. Compact paper + executed pilot results + reproduci…

    TeX 1

  2. safe-market-universes safe-market-universes Public

    Safety benchmark testing whether model-emitted uncertainty can ration scarce human review under corrupted evidence. Scores oversight-allocation regret against a hindsight oracle; every headline num…

    Python 1

  3. Macroeconomic-Simulation-Netlogo Macroeconomic-Simulation-Netlogo Public

    Agent-based NetLogo model of workforce transitions under AI automation, comparing tech-driven and human-centric policy scenarios with seeded reproducible benchmarks.

    NetLogo 1

  4. RAG_Eval RAG_Eval Public

    Evaluation harness comparing naive and reranked RAG pipelines with RAGAS and SQuAD metrics on the Mini Wikipedia corpus.

    Jupyter Notebook 1 1

  5. DonorsChoose-ML-Policy-Analysis DonorsChoose-ML-Policy-Analysis Public

    ML model that flags DonorsChoose classroom projects at highest risk of going unfunded, with a fairness audit across school poverty levels.

    Jupyter Notebook 1 1

  6. Strike-Team Strike-Team Public

    Pittsburgh's AI investment ecosystem mapped at CMU's Block Center: 133 active AI firms, USD 6.3B cumulative funding (July 2025 snapshot). Committed report and reproducible pipeline; raw Crunchbase …

    HTML 2